Great tweet by @benedictEvans, as usual:
@BenedictEvans: We have no precedent to understand ecosystem scale effects when the smaller ecosystem has 6/700m users, and at least half of the activity
This is exactly right, and I think an overwhelming theme of the times. People say “it’s playing out exactly like Mac v PC” or “it’s nothing like that”.
The truth is, like a lot of things, it’s different, but the same. It’s the same in the sense that an OS paired with a ton of different manufacturers around the world and an openish software layer has become dominant in global market share, and that the lower volume player (Apple) is perceived widely as the superior user experience. (IMHO with significant merit.)
It’s different in the sense that in the US, where many important developers live and work, it’s close to 50/50. More importantly, it’s different in that the minority ecosystem of IOS has hundreds of millions of users, and they’re all spending money.
We’re used to thinking about tech as winner takes all because the minority players are all sub scale.
With billions of users in the market, it is not clear at all that winner-takes-all or even winner-takes-most will be true at all.
It seems pretty clear to me that at this point Apple has conclusively proved that the traditional thinking no longer applies.